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People v. Collins : ウィキペディア英語版 | People v. Collins ''People v. Collins''〔''People v. Collins'', , 438 P.2d 33 (1968)〕 was a 1968 American robbery trial noted for its misuse of probability〔Laurence H. Tribe, ''Trial by Mathematics: Precision and Ritual in the Legal Process'', 84 HARV. L. REV. 1329 (1971).〕 and as an example of the prosecutor's fallacy.〔Michael O. Finkelstein & William B. Fairley, ''A Bayesian Approach to Identification Evidence'', 83 HARV. L. REV. 489 (1970).〕〔Kreith, K. (1976) "Mathematics, Social Decisions and the Law", ''International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology'' vol.7 p315〕 ==Trial== After a mathematics instructor testified about the multiplication rule for probability, though ignoring conditional probability, the prosecutor invited the jury to consider the probability that the accused (who fit witness' description of a black male with a beard and moustache, and a caucasian female with a blonde ponytail, fleeing in a yellow car) were not the robbers, suggesting that they estimate: The jury returned a guilty verdict.
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